Will The Sun Win It?

7th Apr

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11th April 1992 - The Tories secured a further five years in Parliament and The Sun unashamedly claimed it was them "wot won it".

A bold declaration. But undoubtedly there was an element of truth behind the headline, considering:

• The opinion polls suggested a Labour win right up until the day before the election
• The hard-hitting, pre-election day Kinnock splash
• A daily circulation of 3.6 million
• Fewer alternative sources of news / opinion than in the present day

But how influential has Britain's best-selling daily newspaper been in terms of election outcomes throughout the past 40 years?

I've had a look at newspapers and political endorsements since 1979. Interestingly - although perhaps unsurprisingly - The Sun emerged as the only news publication to have consistently backed the winning party.

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Social media advocates may argue that The Sun has less influence than in previous election years. Today's diverse media landscape has a more varied array of news and opinion.

The phrase "Mumsnet election" was recently coined by the media - and undeniably, with over one million members, the discussion and opinion generated on blogs like this will hugely influence voters within specific demographics.

ABCs for Feb 2010 suggest a 1.86 million online daily readership of the left-wing guardian.co.uk - the highest online newspaper readership (after MailOnline of course).

In addition a recent survey of 1,500 newspaper readers emphasises the fact that online readers are not as loyal to their favourite publications - for example The Sun online readers also visit the left-wing Mirror.co.uk and Timesonline.co.uk / Express.co.uk readers also visit guardian.co.uk

But will the digital media revolution be enough to stop The Sun from winning the 2010 election? I would argue not.

The Sun remains Britain's best selling daily newspaper with a larger and (arguably) more loyal readership than any other print or online publication.

February 2010 ABCs suggest a circulation of almost 3 million - most of whom will vote because they are being geared up do so - sort of like dogs before a fight.

With this in mind, The Sun's decision to back Cameron in the forthcoming General Election couldn't have been a bigger blow to Brown and, in my opinion, was the final nail in his coffin.

Resources:
http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/e97/pastpaps.htm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8282189.stm
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2009/sep/30/sun-labour-gordon-brown-support-newspapers
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/electionspast/0,,1445200,00.html
http://www.speedcommunications.com/blogs/wadds/2010/03/26/online-newspaper-circulation-figures-abc-multi-platform-monthly-report-february-2010/
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/table/2010/mar/12/abcs-dailies-february-2010

Written by Harriet Crosse